Compare the two methods of NPV analysis for GBI’s purchase of equipment. If there are differences, what are they and how do they affect your recommendations? Do the results of the discrete analysis and the stochastic analysis lead you to the same conclusion? If you need/want to make any changes to your Monte Carlo simulation in Excel, make the change and explain why you feel it enhances the analysis created in the preceding steps. (For example, you may want to simulate the model more than 2,000 times or you might want to use more or fewer bins for your histogram, and so on.) Decide which vendor to recommend and prepare documentation including visualizations to support your recommendation. Prepare a written report as described below in Deliverables.

A succinct write up which discusses which quote you recommend and why. Be specific about your recommended course of action for GBI managers.

  • Discuss the analysis that caused you to arrive at your decision. Include tables and figures to support your discussion. At a minimum, include the charts you created as part of the assignment instructions for each of the three vendor options.
  • Also include in your write up, a comparison of the results from your discrete analysis with the results from your stochastic analysis. Which model do you believe is more reliable and more useful and why?
  • Which method of stochastic modeling in Excel (using Analysis ToolPak or RAND() formula) do you find more effective for this type of problem and why? Reminder: You used the Analysis ToolPak in the introductory assignment.
  • We made a few assumptions in this analysis. For instance, we assumed that each value of an estimated variable is equally likely to occur. How would we have to change this simulation if the distribution of the variable values was not equally distributed? What if it was normally distributed or skewed to one side for instance? How might we account for seasonality of sales? In your opinion, do the simplifying assumptions of the case; such as random distribution and disregard of seasonality, detract from the model’s usefulness? Why or why not?
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